How To Build Sports Betting Model

• How To Build A Sports Betting Model In Excel
• How To Make A Sports Betting Model
• How To Develop A Sports Betting Model

NFL Betting Systems: The Definitive Guide to the Top Strategies

How big is the football betting market?

No you don't have to be a programming wiz to build a sports betting model. Most successful bettors are not. But the more you do know about spreadsheets and the like, the better off you will be and the more powerful your testing and analysis will be. And perhaps most of all, the more efficiently you will make use of your time. It is good to know that sports betting make up about 13 percent of the global gambling market, which also includes lotteries, casinos, gaming machines, bingo and other gaming paraphernalia. Estimation puts the gross win of the global gambling industry at more than 400 billion U.S.

Forget baseball.

America’s favorite pastime is football.

The proof is in the pudding. And the Vegas sportsbooks. Football is by far the most bet on sport in the United States. To be specific, the Super Bowl.

This past year alone, the American Gaming Association estimated bettors to have wagered upwards of $4.7 billion dollars on the nation’s most-watched sporting event.

Despite an ongoing federal ban on sports betting outside Nevada (and sparingly in certain other states), the majority of that money comes from illegal bets placed outside of the Sagebrush State.

That’s right.

Only $132M of that $4.7B is considered legal.

And yet, betting for the sport continues to increase with each passing year. According to Jimmy Vaccaro, a prominent Las Vegas bookmaker, Americans wager upwards of $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.

That being said, the majority of bettors fail to turn a profit.

According to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of Beat the Sports Books(Cardoza Publishing 2005), throughout an entire NFL season, “fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit. Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

Why do most NFL betting systems fail?

Well a standard bet requires bettors to wage $11 for every $10 they want to win. The extra $1 is called the juice.

Were it not for the juice, things might be different.

The average bettor might have a chance at real success. But as it stands, the odds and the money favor the bookmakers. A sports bettor has to select 52.4 percent winners simply to break even. But each year, the average Joe wins only 50 percent of the bets they make.

Treat NFL betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms —

So it’s an uphill battle for most bettors dipping their toes in the waters of sports gambling.

The trick is to take things seriously.

Treat betting for what it is — a sophisticated network of constantly changing data points pouring through equally sophisticated predictive algorithms — and you might just have a chance at going from square to sharp.

But don’t be overwhelmed.

If you’re reading this, chances are you’re a serious bettor looking to make some well-informed decisions to take your football betting to another level.

Before we get into the fundamentals of NFL betting, let’s first take a look at the basics of our very own predictive wager system.

Our Betting Methodology and System

The Simulator is built based on a predictive model created by a doctor with an extensive background in mathematics, psychology, and operations research.

This individual has worked with multiple professional and collegiate sports organizations, player agents, sports data agencies and a top-ranked fantasy website. His work with professional sports organizations includes optimizing scout travel, in-depth player analysis and lineup configurations.

Correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time

Among his greatest innovations was the discovery of neural networks as a powerful tool for sports betting.

A neural network is defined as a computer system modeled on the human brain and nervous system.

Using this technology, the good doctor found that, “the best networks were able to correctly predict the winning team 74.33 percent of the time (on average) as compared to the experts who were correct 68.67 percent of the time.”

While the model was initially developed around NBA betting, it has since been applied to other sports — chief among them, the NFL.

What makes the Sports Analytics Simulator unique is that it relies not on data inputs (statistics) from previous seasons, but on continuous game-to-game updates.

The Simulator’s specific algorithms run through up to forty different stat categories to create the most efficient model possible.

From this model, we derive our picks for each game. And the best part is, our system is a living, breathing predictive model — it possesses machine learning capacities that allow to detect trends and potentials that we mere humans could only dream of finding.

For more information, check out this handy dandy video on how it works.

NFL Betting Systems

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of NFL Betting. Essentially there are six different ways to bet on the NFL. Let’s run through them shall we?

NFL Spread Bet

The first and most popular form of NFL betting is spread-based. Which is pretty straightforward.

Bookmakers set a spread with a favorite and an underdog. In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Chiefs over the Steelers, the Chiefs must win by seven points or more.

Whereas in order for the Steelers to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win. To make it simpler, the spread gives the underdog a ‘head start’.

In this case, the Steelers have a +7 head start in points to kick off the game. Pretty straightforward stuff.

Now, if you simply want to bet on the winner of the game you’ll want to place a…

Moneyline Bet

Moneyline betting is an equally common form of sports betting as spread bets. The difference is that with moneylines, bookmakers will set lines representing the favorite and the underdog.

Let’s go back to this Chiefs-Steelers matchup.

Let’s say the Chiefs have a favored line of -150 and the Steelers have an underdog line of +125.

What this means is that in order to win a hundred dollars on the Chiefs, you must wage $150.

As for the underdogs, if you wage $100 you will win $125. So that’s that.

NFL Totals Bet

NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game.

Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 55 points for the Chiefs and Steelers.

Your job as a bettor is to decide whether the score will be… over or under 55 points.

NFL Prop Bet

A prop bet is a special kind of bet that has nothing to do with the outcome or final score of a game.

Prop bets come in many different forms.

Some of them are player-based — how many yards or touchdowns a specific player scores. Some of them are based in live betting, i.e. if a team scores on a specific drive.

During the Super Bowl you’ll see all sorts of fun prop bets like coin toss wagers.

NFL Parlay Bet

You might have seen a parlay bet featured in the film, Silver Linings Playbook, (or read it in the book), wherein Pat Solitano’s father, Patrizio Sr., places a bet on the Eagles-Cowboys game and the judge outcome of Pat and Tiffany’s dance number in a local dance-off.

In order for Patrizio to win the bet, the Eagles must win their game against Dallas and Tiffany and Pat score 5 out of 10 in their dance competition.

This is what’s known as a parlay bet, wherein various games and outcomes are rubber-banded together into one single bet.

In order for the bettor to win the wager, all outcomes must unfold accordingly. This might involve a handful of other bets such as a totals bet and a moneyline bet.

In the NFL, this is a common form of betting to get more bang for your buck.

NFL Teaser Bet

A teaser bet is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten NFL wagers in which you adjust the point spreads and/or totals in your favor in exchange for a lower payout.

When your teaser includes a point spread, you have the option to decrease the spread for the favorite or increase the spread for the underdog.

When you’re teasing a total, you can increase the under or decrease the over.

Like a parlay, winning the bet is dependent on all of the wagers winning.

Standard teasers are 6, 6.5 and 7-point. There’s also a sweetheart teaser, which offers you the choice to tease a line by 10 or 13 points.

It’s basically a parlay with a little bit of zazz.

The Most Important NFL Betting Stats

Now, knowing the forms of NFL betting is great but without the statistics to back up your wager, you’re S.O.L.

So what are the most important stats for successfully determining winners in an NFL game?

Well, it might not be what you think.

How To Build A Sports Betting Model In Excel

According to a prominent Vegas oddsmaker, one of the most integral statistics for betting the NFL is… duh duh duh dahhh… pass yards per attempt.

Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents

In a passer’s league this makes a lot of sense.

Teams that are successful and efficient in their passing game tend to carry the edge over their less successful opponents. Taking this little known or acknowledged stat into account in your handicapping will no doubt help you find success in your waging.

The other big stat to consider in placing your bets is turnovers.

Seems pretty simple.

The team who averages more turnovers per game is likely to give up more scoring opportunities and thus the whole game.

As we’ve said, the Sports Analytics Simulator utilizes up-to-date, real time game-to-game statistics to establish the most accurate predictions week in and week out. So it goes without saying that our model analyzes far more than just turnovers and passing yards per attempt.

Nonetheless, betting in any case involves a level of intuition. Therefore, even if you subscribe to the Simulator, it would behoove you to do your own research. Check out important stats. Take your time with each pick. Choose wisely based on time-tested methods and patterns.

Factors for NFL picks?

Aside from the aforementioned factors, you’ve got to consider other dynamics. For instance, what is the most pivotal quality of any team in the NFL?

I’ll give you a hint. It’s not a good quarterback. Teams with good quarterbacks flounder all the time in the NFL.

If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five

What really matters is the team’s offensive line.

Think the 2016-17 Dallas Cowboys. Sure, they failed to win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback and running back. But the majority of their success last season was owed directly to the strength of their offensive line.

If an O-Line is good, the quarterback and running back will look good too. And you better bet your bottom dollar that an NFL team with a solid O-Line is far more likely to go the distance than a team with big holes and weaknesses in their front five.

In order to successfully bet the NFL, you’ve got to consider these more understated and under-appreciated factors — such as a strong O-Line.

You’ve got to take it game by game and know that in this league, fortunes shift in an instant. There’s no perfect formula for effective betting.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t resources and numbers at your disposal to help you get the edge on oddsmakers.

With that said, let’s explore some of the biggest mistakes that squares (amateur bettors) often make when betting on the NFL.

Biggest mistakes with NFL betting

Money Management

The biggest mistake is money management.

If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.

This seems pretty obvious but you’d be surprised (or maybe not) at the trouble amateur bettors have with this one.

It’s simple.

Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose.

That means knowing what your bankroll is for a given season and being disciplined with your money. “Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” says Jimmy Vaccaro. “If you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

Shop the Numbers

Another big mistake amateurs make is that they don’t account for a variety of numbers.

No sportsbook is exactly the same as another.

Lines, differentials, totals, spreads will all look different depending on where you look. In the NFL, you might not think that .5 points is a significant. But you’d be wrong. So shop the numbers.

Don’t say yes to the first line you see.

Shopping the numbers will give you a better idea of potential outcomes and allow you to make a well-rounded decision on your bets.

What else? Well, let’s start with something basic.

Bet the Underdog at Home

There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home

You might think betting on the favorite is the obvious option every time but you’d be wrong. “There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. “Teams play inspired ball at home.

Slim underdogs regularly win outright.

Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

To revisit a favorite example, the Chiefs tend to claim the edge in the majority of their home games, no matter their status on the betting lines.

Why?

Because there’s magic at Arrowhead.

There’s more to lose when you’re playing before 150,000 of your fans’ scrutinizing eyeballs.

Here’s a list of some of the other worst betting mistakes you can make:

1. Chasing your bets
2. Getting vindictive
3. Trying to win back losses
4. Go after big wins to recoup losses
5. Overly-promising wagers.

It’s like a night of heavy drinking. It might sound tempting beforehand. But the next day you’re likely to have some regret.

Remember that betting is a mathematician’s game.

There’s no large place for emotion in this game.

When it comes to the NFL, upon which more bets are placed than any other sport in America, that goes double. The oddsmakers have one job — and that’s to know their shit.

The key to beating them is knowing yours too.

Often, I write information about how to make money as a sports bettor. Some professional bettors are able to turn a long-term profit, but there’s no doubt that it’s hard to do.

But learning how to beat the bookmakers isn’t the only way to make money in the sports betting world. The bookmakers are the ones making most of the money, so you could consider starting your own bookmaking business.

The problem with this is that the legal issues and cost often make it difficult or impossible.

But there’s another way you can make money in the sports betting world. What if you were able to sell sports-betting tips and advice to others?

If you want to know how to start your own business selling sports picks, I’ve compiled a guide to help you get started.

The profit potential can be big. For most bettors, it can offer the chance for far greater profits than betting on games.

If you can find 100 people willing to pay you $100 a month for picks, you can make $10,000 a month. Or you can make the same if you can find 1,000 people willing to buy picks for $10 a month.

The number of sports bettors making $10,000 a month is small, but if you know how to market your services, you have a real chance of making money with less risk than betting on games.

Models

One of the first things you need to do is decide which model you plan to use to sell picks. The three main models are:

• Subscription – In the subscription model, your buyers pay a set fee, usually on a weekly or monthly basis, and receive a set number of picks each term. This is a good model for ongoing income, because once you get someone signed up, you just have to keep them happy to keep the money flowing.
• Package – A package is somewhat like a subscription in that you sell more than one pick at a time. But it’s usually a one-time fee for a package of picks. A common package is for all of the NFL games for the week or all of the MLB games for the day.
• Individual – Selling individual picks is just like it sounds. You sell your pick for a particular game. This can be by the game of the week or by offering a series of games where your customers can pick the individual games they want picks for.

Of course, you can use more than one model, or a combination of models. And these aren’t the only ways to sell picks. These are just the most common.

One model isn’t necessarily better than another, and once you build your customer base, you might want to offer multiple options.

You can have different levels of subscription models and different size packages. A subscription model could have a silver, gold, and platinum level, where the silver members get 5 games a week, the golds get 10, and the platinum members get 20.

If you sell packages, you can sell a set package with specific games, or you can sell a package of credits, where your customers can pick a set number of individual games they want picks for.

The model you use is up to you and depends on how you want to run your business. I suggest starting with one model and expanding from there.

I prefer the subscription model, because if you do a good job keeping your bettors happy, you can predict your income from week to week or month to month, and you only have the marketing cost of acquiring the customer the first time.

Marketing

The thing that makes or breaks your ability to make money selling sports betting picks isn’t your ability to pick winners. The most important thing is your ability to market your services and acquire paying customers.

You can use a wide range of marketing options to build your business. Here are a few ideas to help you get started:

• Social Media – It seems like everyone is on social media of some sort these days. People spend a great deal of time on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and a host of other media platforms.

The biggest issue with building your sports betting customer base on social media platforms are the cost and the terms. Some social media outlets avoid gambling-related ads and services, and the ones that allow gambling ads have a competitive market that drives the prices up.

• Print – Print advertising is available in a wide range of options, including newspapers and magazines. Just like with most forms of advertising, you need to keep a close eye on your costs, but if you can figure out the formula for making more than you spend, print advertising is plentiful, so you won’t run out of places to advertise.
• Radio – Radio isn’t one of the most popular forms of advertising, but many sports bettors are radio listeners. They listen to games and sports talk radio, so if you can buy radio spots during games and/or on sports talk shows and stations, you can reach your target market.

You can find thousands of radio stations that are looking for advertisers, so you have plenty of options.

• Television – Sports bettors watch games on television and follow sports news on stations like ESPN. You sometimes run into the same challenges as social media, as television stations can be afraid of running gambling-related advertising.
• Pay-Per-Click – You can run pay-per-click ads, also called PPC, on the internet. Search engines like Google and Yahoo sell ads where you only pay when someone clicks on your ads. Read the terms and conditions to find out if they take gambling ads.
• Your Own Website – You should create your own website if you want to sell sports picks. But creating a site is only a small part of the battle. You still need to get potential customers to the site. You can drive traffic to your site using the other forms of marketing listed above and learn some basic search engine optimization (called SEO) strategies to get search engine traffic.

In order to succeed, you need to be able to get potential customers to your site. You need to explore these marketing options and any others you run across to see if you can profitably get new customers.

When you figure out how to acquire new customers for less than what they pay you, your new business has a chance to grow and create a long-term profit.

If you continually need to find new customers, it can be costly, so try to maximize the value of each customer you get. You can maximize the value by increasing the amount they spend on their first purchase and by getting them to continue spending money after their initial purchase.

Delivery

The next thing you need to consider is how you plan to deliver your picks. You have a few different options, and the technology available today makes it easier than ever. Here are the most common options:

• Email – Email is the best way for most pick sellers to get started. All you need to do is get your buyer’s email when they sign up, and then add them to your list. You can get email list software that makes it easy to manage your list and still sends emails for free.
• Private Website – You can also set up a private area on your website that people have to log in to access. You can post your picks to the private area, and each of your buyers can have a separate login and password to access the picks.
• Answering System – You can record your picks on an answering machine or through a cell phone voicemail system. This becomes complicated when you sell different picks and packages, and how do you keep someone who drops your service from continuing to call and get your picks? You can find ways around this, but this isn’t the way I’d get started.
• Fax – Fax delivery is not as popular as it once was, but some people still use it. Even if your buyers don’t have a fax machine, some of them can receive faxes as email now. I don’t recommend using a fax delivery system, because email and a private website are easier to set up or have set up, and most people who bet on sports at least know how to use one or the other.

If you don’t know anything about setting up websites and private areas online, I suggest using email to get started. If you can get a private area set up, it can be better than email, because you don’t have to worry about your emails not getting delivered or being put in a spam folder.

You can also offer a combination of both email and a password-protected section of your site, so your buyers can use whichever method they prefer.

Pricing

A big decision needs to be made about how much you plan to charge for your subscription, picks, and packages. If you research the prices charged by current pick sellers, you can find prices ranging from a few dollars to hundreds of dollars.

To some degree, the less you charge, the more likely someone is to try your services, but this isn’t 100% accurate. People decide to spend money for a variety of different reasons, and sometimes it takes just as much effort and money to get someone to buy at a lower price as it does at a higher price.

You need to charge enough so that you can afford to advertise to get new customers, but you don’t want to charge so much that many people can’t afford to buy. This is something that many businesses struggle with.

In business, you want to be profitable and maximize the profits, but finding the right mix is challenging. The best thing to do is test as many options and price points as possible to learn where you can make the most profit.

Most people don’t think anything about spending a few dollars a day on coffee, or cigarettes, or the lottery, or something else. Most of us have something we spend money on without thinking about it.

If you spend $3 a day on something, that adds up to around $90 a month. This is a decent estimate of what you might be able to charge your customers, if you can convince them it’s a good deal. I see many pick subscriptions and packages around $100 a month.

Of course, I see many at much higher prices, too. Part of your price strategy involves your target customers. If you target the average weekend sports bettor, you might charge $49.99 a month. But if you target high-end bettors, you might be able to charge $499 a month.

One way to offer something for almost everyone is by providing different subscription levels, or packages with different prices and services attached. An entry-level membership might cost $19.99 a month and provide five picks a week.

The top-end subscription might cost $199 a month and provide 20 picks a week and advanced analysis for some games.

You can set your prices at whatever you want, because there’s no industry norm. But you should set them at the point where you can maximize your profits, whether this is from many people at a low price or fewer people at a high price.

How To Make A Sports Betting Model

One thing to remember is that it’s difficult to raise your price for your existing customers. But just because you have some customers paying one price doesn’t mean you can’t charge more for the same service for new customers.

Do You Have to Be Good at Picking Winners?

Most people think they have to be good at picking winners to sell picks. While it helps if you’re good at picking winners, the truth is that if you do a good job marketing, it doesn’t really matter.

It doesn’t matter if you consistently beat the sportsbooks, because no one is going to buy your picks just because of this. Everyone that tries to sell picks claims that they can beat the books.

You can find all kinds of outrageous claims and fuzzy math to back them up. I’ve seen all kinds of supposed proof, and after a while it all seems like a sleazy sales pitch.

And once you learn how some sleazy operators work, you’re probably never going to buy a pick again. But you don’t have to operate like them.

Here’s an example:

If you can use effective marketing and advertising to generate a stream of paying customers, you can simply flip a coin when you make your picks. Or you can give half your customers one side of a game and the other half the other side of a game.

Let’s say that you can get 400 customers to sign up for a game-of-the-week package for $49 a month. The first week, you give 200 of them one side of a game, and the other 200 the other side of the game. You do the same thing the second, third, and fourth week.

After the first week, 200 customers received a winning pick, and 200 received a losing pick. After the second week, 100 customers received two winners in a row, 200 customers have received one winner and one loser, and 100 customers have received two losers in a row.

After four weeks, you have 25 customers that have received four straight winners, 100 customers that are 3 and 1, 150 customers that are 2 and 2, 100 customers that are 1and 3, and 25 customers that have received four straight losers.

The 25 customers that have received four winners in a row are likely to continue, and the 100 that are 3 and 1 are also likely to continue. You could offer anyone else that doesn’t continue their subscription a half-off deal for the next month.

How To Develop A Sports Betting Model

If you can keep acquiring new customers for a reasonable amount of money, you can build a profitable business model and never have to make a real pick.

I don’t recommend doing business this way. The reason I showed you this example is so you can see why marketing is more important than being able to pick winners.

Of course, it’s best if you can pick winners and learn how to become a good marketer. If you can consistently give your customers good service and winning picks, you can build a solid business that can give you a good profit for years to come.

Do You Have to Be Sleazy?

You just read an example of a sleazy pick seller. A person who runs a business like the one in the example is dishonest, and an argument could be made that they’re a thief. They don’t offer any true value to their customers.

But the sleaze factor doesn’t stop here in the pick selling business. Many sellers make outrageous claims about how great their picks are and how they guarantee winners. They can run a different scam much like the one in the example by offering a money-back guarantee on their picks.

You pay for a pick and supposedly get your money back if it doesn’t win. They give half the buyers one side of a game and the other half the other side. When the losers try to get their money back, they get offered a free pick or a series of free picks instead.

Let me be clear about this: you don’t have to be sleazy to sell sports picks. Most people aren’t going to believe anything you tell them anyway, so why make untrue and outrageous claims?

Set up and run your business in a different way. Try being honest and try to give true value to your customers. Most pick buyers are so used to getting screwed that if they find a seller who gives good service and is honest, they can be turned into lifetime customers.

It’s up to you how you set up and run your business, but companies that don’t offer any real value to their customers tend to fail. It doesn’t always happen fast, but eventually they tend to crash and burn.

It costs so much to acquire new customers that you can’t afford lose too many of them once you have them. When you run your pick-selling business ethically and continually offer value, you have a good chance to survive and thrive. It’s not a guarantee of success, but it gives the best odds for long-term profits.

Conclusion

If you want to create a way to make money from the sports betting business, consider starting your own pick service. Use this guide about how to start your own business of selling sports picks to get started.

The key is figuring out how to be an effective marketer and offering good service and value to your customers. If you can do these two things, the rest will take care of itself. In this guide, you learned how to pick a model, price your services, and deliver your picks, and the best marketing options to get started.

Now all you need to do is take action. Either build a website or find someone to build one for you, offer a subscription service or package, and start driving traffic to your site