Nba Basketball Betting Strategies
There are betting strategies that involve simply betting against the NBA consensus, otherwise known as “fading the public.” Betting Against the Public It’s a contrarian view of betting that says the public will be wrong more often than they are right, because many are casual bettors who just like to bet favorites or bet their favorite teams. Backing a losing favorite. If you’re a loyal fan of the sport, you will have noticed favorites seldom. Advanced Basketball Betting Strategy. One of the most exciting things about betting on basketball is there are an endless number of ways you can build a profitable betting strategy. While in theory, a perfect system exists to identify value, pick winners, and make money, we highly doubt it’s been discovered yet. Whether you’re looking at NBA betting or betting on international basketball, you can find sportsbooks that offer a broad range of bet types and markets. These betting markets often focus on the most popular tournaments and organizations including but not limited to International Basketball Federation (FIBA), the Euro League, and even the.
When it comes to betting on teams during the regular season, the NBA is about as difficult as it gets in pro sports…for a number of different reasons.
The inconsistent performances, unexpected rest days, and a range of other factors make the league a challenge to predict on a regular basis. With that being said, there are some “hacks” to help you improve your strategy and add to your bankroll.
In this article, I’ll explain 5 alternative ways to bet the NBA that you probably haven’t considered previously.
1 – Halves
Predicting the outcome of an entire game is obviously a challenge, but breaking it down into to two, more manageable parts makes things a little bit easier.
Instead of trying to bet on the game as a whole, bet on the outcomes of the first and second halves separately.
First, the most popular form of betting when it comes to halves is the same as it is for this wagering on the full game – the spread. The same challenges exist when trying to predict the spread on a half to half basis as when trying to pick it accurately for the full game, so for that reason I typically go another route.
My personal favorite way to bet on halves is playing totals. The reason I prefer playing the over/under instead of the spread is because it’s easier to predict the pace of the game rather than which team will jump out ahead early.
2 – Player Props
I know, I know – prop bets are generally frowned upon by those who understand the ins and outs of sports betting. With that being said, the NBA player props generally provide more value than the NFL prop bet options.
When it comes to the specific bets I’ve had the most success with, I tend to focus on points rather than assists and/or rebounds. To add to that, in my experience it’s much easier to predict the scoring numbers for the second-best player on a team.
Nearly all NBA teams have a defined first and second option when it comes to which players are responsible for scoring. The online NBA sportsbooks know that the public is going to be more inclined to bet the over for the top scoring option. This means that there’s an opportunity to capitalize in other areas where the house won’t receive as much action.
Although this strategy takes a little more leg work, if you’re able to find a scenario where the best player on a team is coming off a high-scoring game, the following game is the best time to bet the “over” on the second-best option.
Nba Basketball Betting Strategies Rules
When a player has a huge night scoring, they usually gain more defensive attention in the next game. Not only does that mean they’ll be more likely to score less than the prop total, but it also means that the second scoring option will be the beneficiary of the defense’s increased attention on the number one guy.
Although there might not be a hard-and-fast rule to apply when looking at player scoring props, there are several different indicators to use that can help guide you in the right direction. If you put in the time and do the research, you can turn this into a major part of your NBA betting strategy.
3 – Live Betting
The NBA has a strangely consistent theme when it comes to regular season games. This is especially true during mismatches where one team is clearly superior to their opponent.
The first quarter of an NBA game is without question the most predictable. Players are trying to find their rhythm on the offensive end which gives underdogs a great opportunity to jump out to an early lead. Not to mention, the best teams in the league frequently start “turning it on” later in the game while coasting during the first half.
Live Betting Gives You the Chance to Bet on What Your Eyes Are Telling You in Real-Time
For example, if a favorite ends the first quarter losing by four points but the favorite only shot 30% in the period, you should be expecting things to turn around heavily when the shot-making progresses to something resembling an “average” performance.
The concept above is one of the best predictors for betting on what happens next in the game. Obviously, shooting is the most important stat in the book. A team might find itself down at halftime because of a below-average performance, but somewhat counterintuitively, it’s a good idea to live bet on the losing team if the score is still close.
If a team is shooting well below their capabilities but is still in the game, it should tell you that a comeback is imminent. Of course there will be games when the shooting is off for the entire night, but more often than not, things will finish up close to average when it comes to shooting percentage.
Regardless of the sport, live betting on the favorite when they get down early in the game is a high-value play. The only downside is you have to be closely playing attention to the action in order to take advantage of the opportunity.
4 – Moneyline
Speaking of value, in my opinion the moneyline is one of the most under-used tools when betting on the NBA. When there’s a matchup between two relatively even teams (think the “middle” 20 teams in the league), it’s essentially a toss-up for who will win.
The huge degree of variability benefits the underdog. This might be a slight oversimplification, but here’s an analogy to explain the theory: Imagine you’re betting on a coin flip. The only trick here is that the odds aren’t 50-50. In this example, your odds are +135 for heads, and -120 for tails. A smart bettor would take the higher value odds every time.
I recognize that an NBA game is not a coin flip, which has perfectly even odds for either side. However, when to middle-of-the-pack NBA teams meet up during the regular season, it’s close to a 50-50 proposition when you consider the endless variables that are ever present during the NBA’s regular season.
This concept is just another reason why it’s important to always remember sports betting isn’t about winning as many bets as possible – it’s about winning as much money as possible. The public is generally risk averse, and everyone knows the public’s reputation when it comes to winning money betting on sports.
If you’re hovering around 50% for your overall win rate betting on the spread, it might be time to switch up your strategy to something that puts a higher emphasis on value. Just as in business or investing, risk-taking is a necessity if you want to have sustained success. As they say, fortune favors the bold.
5 – NBA Finals Futures
Speaking of value…if you haven’t taken a look at the futures odds, it’s time to do yourself a favor and get acquainted.
Each season, it becomes clear that there are only a handful of teams who have a shot at winning the title (and in some years it’s less than that). In most cases, you’ll be able to package together several different teams and still come out ahead if one of them takes home the title.
Obviously the odds will change from year to year, but in just about every season you’ll find that even the favorite has favorable numbers for bettors.
For Example:Heading into the 2021 season, the Lakers had odds of +260 while the Nets – the second-highest favorite – came in at +270. That means that if you put $100 on each, you’d come out ahead if either one of them takes home the title.
To take things a step further, if you packaged the third-highest favorite to win the title for just $50, you’d stand to win $300 as the LA Clippers began the season as a +600 underdog. For those keeping track at home, that means you could bet on the Lakers, Nets, or Clippers to win the Finals, and make money if one of them comes through.
It should be noted that whether or not a certain futures bet is a good play all comes down to value. If the odds are there, it’s certainly something you should be taking advantage of before or during the season.
Conclusion
The NBA is a challenge for sports bettors who rely on the spread, but there are more opportunities to be successful if you get creative.
Regardless of which plays you prefer to make, remember that over the course of a long 82-game season, betting for value is going to be rewarded in the end. Consider these betting options the next time you log into your sportsbook and your bankroll will thank you.
Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.One of the best things about sports betting is that you can find many viable strategies on the internet. Whether they are proven to be effective or just useless, is up to you to find out. However, there has been no foolproof way to have a 100% win rate on your bets in theory. This is because even though you can implement countless sports betting strategies, a significant percentage of your wins are based on luck at the end of the day.
However, that’s not saying that you shouldn’t do anything in your power to increase your chances of winning. In fact, with this kind of freedom, you are free to experiment with different approaches and strategies you want to. That said, we will be giving some useful advanced strategies for your betting system, and it’s up to you if you want to implement them altogether or use them one at a time.
Either way, they are proven to be useful by a lot of bettors. So here are some useful advanced basketball betting strategies you can use for your bets.
Pick Value Over Winners
Being a successful bettor does not only mean that you have to pick winners. This is a mistake that a lot of bettors, even the seasoned ones, make. You have to look at the value of the wagers first before you place a bet. That means that even though the team you want to bet on is a sure winner, you have to pick the right time when it’s the most profitable to bet on them.
Trending Must Read: Basketball’s Next Stars
It’s important to remember that a sportsbook will give an exact amount minus the juice on what they think a bet is worth. This is extremely important to remember for moving lines. As we all know, moving lines are based on public opinion, in which you have to find the perfect value for each bet, and most of the time, the most profitable value is the one against the public opinion.
Keep Watch of the Line Movement:
Speaking of moving lines, understanding how it works and how it’s affected by bettors is a good way to find value bets with high profitability. For example, let’s say that the Lakers are playing against the Bucks in the finals. You figure that the Bucks should have a payout of +200. Then you shop Odds provided by FanDuel and see that it’s listed as +200. Even if you’re right, you shouldn’t bet on this value yet.
Instead, wait for the following days that lead up to the finals game. There’s a good chance that SportsCenter and news outlets will overhype one of these teams. You wait for it, and sports news cover that the Lakers will crush the Bucks. The public perception will then react based on the hype and puts in tons of bets on the Lakers. To avoid losing a profit, bookies will then make the Bucks +220.
It would be a good time to bet on the Bucks by now. Although if you think that the value will still gradually increase, you can still wait for it. However, this situation doesn’t happen all the time. Line movement is unpredictable, and spotting a great value as you see it is an art form.
As you can deduce by now, betting on the right opportunity will take a little bit of practice and experience. You may end up losing a lot of value bets, but it’s normal. The takeaway here is that you should always be attentive during line movement, or you’re going to miss out on a lot of value bets in the process.
Keep Updated with the Narrative:
Basketball sometimes has storylines that make the games more interesting, like an old rivalry or coach drama. Factoring these in your bets can yield you great results in the long run. Why is this important? Certain drama will give more motivation to the teams in question. One good example of this is a player facing his old team.
Trending: Top NBA teams with brightest futures
NBA players change teams frequently. It’s a norm, and thus it’s fairly common to see a superstar change teams after a season. When the player coincidentally plays against his old team, he will be more motivated to either prove he made the right choice or show that he is better than he once was.
This might sound sappy, but it’s a common trope not just in basketball but in most team sports. That said, his new teammates will often rally around the new players, making the team’s performance more intense.
Takeaway:
Nba Betting Today
At the end of the day, what sports betting boils down to is looking for the bet at the right time and with the best value. Even though you have won many bets before, if their value is not good, you are still not winning enough for your number of bets. A true win in betting is winning a bet that has the best value possible.