Sports Betting Model Excel Template

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Model
  1. The sports betting spreadsheet is free to use, click the link above to download. It opens with Microsoft Office Excel software and is compatible with either Mac or PC. Using the sports bet tracker Settings. The Excel spreadsheet is made of 6 layers. You can move between the sheets.
  2. We have great sports betting tools and tips for up. When betting on sports, it is important to have the right tools and tips. Our sports betting tools and tips include spreadsheets to assist you with your sports betting. The Bet Tracker and the Arbitrage Calculator are available in Microsoft Excel spreadsheets.
Click here for Updated MLB model info 2020

The data in the excel-file is randomly generated for this example. Step 3 - Construct the model. To create a projection for the game we calculate expected points for home and away teams by using a power ratings approach. Power ratings usually refers to team quality compared to league average.

What is My Baseball Betting Strategy

I use my BETTING MODEL as the heart of my baseball betting strategy, created as a betting spreadsheet to project my own odds and probabilities for every single game in MLB season. The idea is to compare a teams offense with other teams’ defence, which is a combination of starting pitcher and bullpen.

When baseball season is on, I analyze every single game. Every day I calculate win% with the right starting pitcher and the formulas in the model, that I have created for baseball. Most of my data is automated and automatically pulled from the internet.

I just type:

  • The name of the team

  • Pitcher and his hand

And the model outputs winning percentages and my projected odds. Then I use Kelly criterium to estimate the optimal bet size.

Money Management

Baseball betting requires extreme discipline, expert money management and constant analysis and research.

I can teach you how to analyze games, how to create and use betting model, but there is also one other part that we all must fight on a daily basis: Work and discipline.

Most of my bets are 1-2% of my current bankroll (I use adjusted Kelly criterium to estimate the bet size).

Sports Betting Model Excel Template Excel

Sports Betting Model

Statistics and analytics are more and more important. This is something that I always repeat and in the world of dynamic sports betting, following other people’s picks is not the smartest idea. So, if you get the odds of 1.91 (-110) or 2.00 (+100) is a big difference and it can be the line between losing and winning. This is why I think, that estimating the numbers and betting on your own is very important. Sports handicappers use different betting systems, betting models, betting strategies to find the value. I use my private betting spreadsheet where I estimate my own probabilities for baseball games.

But still, I see a lot of sports handicappers, that say, that they have “good info” and “experience”. Of course, this can not work in the long run. Good info is easy to find with the internet. Intuition on the others side, which is basically some sort of experience can not be measured. Because of that a lot of sports handicappers and also some old successful bettors can no longer make a profit. Numbers are more and more important for betting. Bet numbers, not the teams.

In the World of dynamic sports betting, following or buying picks almost makes no sense anymore. Sports handicappers who make sharp bets will also move the line most of the time. Just for an example in my MLB 2019 season my bets beat the closing line 70% of time. And the best value bets (estimated biggest adjk value plays) beat the line 75% of time. That means, that even if you follow my picks, you would get much worse line. And if we understand that the price is the key, paying bad price is the difference between losing and winning.

Sports Betting Excel Template

Bettors will put a lot of effort and time to search for sports handicappers who will give them winning picks, but this will not work in the long run and especially if you are serious about sports betting.

Remember that sports handicappers that make money in sports betting, they don’t follow anyone and more importantly, they move the line. They don’t wait others. Once you wait in a sharp betting market, you are out.

Sports Betting Model Excel Template Google Sheets

This is why I repeat all the time that betting on your own is very important. Instead of spending whole day on social media and searching for sports handicappers and their mlb betting picks, it is much better to put some effort, learn the very basic concepts of how to build your own betting system and then follow it, improve it and win.